Time-dependent analysis of length of stay and mortality due urinary tract infections in ten developing countries : INICC findings

Catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) are a worldwide problem that may lead to increased patient morbidity, cost and mortality.1e3 The literature is divided on whether there are real effects from CAUTI on length of stay or mortality. Platt4 found the costs and mortality risks to be largeyetGraves et al found the opposite.5 A reviewof the published estimates of the extra length of stay showed results between zero and 30 days.6 The differences in estimates may have been caused by the different epidemiological methods applied. Accurately estimating the effects of CAUTI is difficult because it is a time-dependent exposure. This means that standard statistical techniques, such asmatched case-control studies, tend to overestimate the increased hospital stay and mortality risk due to infection. The aim of the study was to estimate excess length of stay andmortality in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a CAUTI, using a statistical model that accounts for the timing of infection. Data collected from ICU units in lower and middle income countries were used for this analysis.7,8 There has been little research for these settings, hence the need for this paper.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.

A contribuição da epidemiologia aos estudos de avaliação da performance clínica através de um evento traçador: o caso das prescrições médicas às crianças com infecção respiratória aguda.

Esta dissertação discute os possíveis delineamentos epidemiológicos e estratégias de análise de dados capazes de apreender as funções de ocorrência de interesse nos estudos de fatores de risco para a prescrição médica inadequada as crianças com infecção respirat6ria aguda, atendidas na rede ambulatorial. Para tal, os principais marcos teóricos que devem nortear a construção de um desenho de estudo epidemiológico são apresentados, assim como as diferentes etapas que devem ser consideradas quando se esta planejando um processo de analise estatística de dados em estudos epidemiológicos. A partir da elaboração de um modelo teórico-conceitual que represente as relações entre os diversos fatores que parecem estar envolvidos com a prescrição e o consumo de medicamentos, diferentes estratégias de pesquisa e pianos de analise são discutidos, alertando-se para os principais problemas a serem evitados quando se busca um estudo com validade e precisão entre satisfatórias.

Progress in the genetics of common obesity and type 2 diabetes

The prevalence of obesity and diabetes, which are heritable traits that arise from the interactions of multiple genes and lifestyle factors, continues to rise worldwide, causing serious health problems and imposing a substantial economic burden on societies. For the past 15 years, candidate gene and genome-wide linkage studies have been the main genetic epidemiological approaches to identify genetic loci for obesity and diabetes, yet progress has been slow and success limited. The genome-wide association approach, which has become available in recent years, has dramatically changed the pace of gene discoveries. Genome-wide association is a hypothesis-generating approach that aims to identify new loci associated with the disease or trait of interest. So far, three waves of large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified 19 loci for common obesity and 18 for common type 2 diabetes. Although the combined contribution of these loci to the variation in obesity and diabetes risk is small and their predictive value is typically low, these recently identified loci are set to substantially improve our insights into the pathophysiology of obesity and diabetes. This will require integration of genetic epidemiological methods with functional genomics and proteomics. However, the use of these novel insights for genetic screening and personalised treatment lies some way off in the future.

Lesões desportivas no atletismo: comparação entre informações obtidas em prontuários e inquéritos de morbidade referida

Para compreender as lesões desportivas (LD) é necessário quantificá-las, associando-as a fatores causais particulares ao esporte. Contudo, faltam registros sobre tais agravos nas instituições esportivas, sobretudo no atletismo brasileiro, em que poucos clubes possuem serviços de assistência à saúde. Na ausência de tais registros, estudos na área de saúde pública, utilizam-se de outros recursos epidemiológicos para coletas, tais como os inquéritos de morbidade referida. A partir dessa escassez de informações e a facilidade de obtenção de dados junto aos próprios atletas, objetivou-se, para esta pesquisa, levantar informações sobre LD referidas por atletas de alto rendimento, retrocedendo em oito meses, e compará-las com os registros de prontuários clínicos. Para tanto, foram tomados 25 atletas de elite, 16 do gênero masculino e nove do feminino, com idade de 25,7 ± 4,4 anos, altura de 1,74 ± 0,10m, peso 70,4 ± 13,15kg e tempo médio de treinamento de 8,38 ± 4,06 anos. Dois fisioterapeutas foram treinados separadamente para coletar informações sobre LD. Um deles em prontuários e o outro dos próprios atletas, através de entrevista (inquéritos de morbidade referida - IMR). Estudo de concordância de respostas para as duas formas de coleta foi realizado pelo teste da proporção binomial, estabelecendo-se limites de 95% de confiança para a concordância. Os resultados mostraram que em todas as variáveis estudadas os valores estavam dentro dos limites de confiança estabelecidos pelos testes estatísticos, sendo: 88,33% para as variáveis tipo de lesão ou agravo e mecanismo de lesão ou aumento dos sintomas, 90% para a variável qualidade do retorno às atividades desportivas e 91,67% para as variáveis local anatômico e período de treinamento. Concluiu-se que houve elevada taxa de concordância entre as informações levantadas, mostrando a eficácia do IMR para a coleta de informações sobre lesões desportivas para a população investigada.

Epidemiologia molecular, fatores de risco e prognóstico da infecção por Enterococcus spp resistentes à vancomicina em situação de introdução recente: um estudo em dois hospitais públicos de Bauru-SP

Pós-graduação em Doenças Tropicais - FMB

Comparación de las aplicaciones de Google y Yahoo para la geocodificación de direcciones postales con fines epidemiológicos

Fundamentos: Geocodificar es asignar coordenadas geográficas a puntos del espacio, frecuentemente direcciones postales. El error cometido al aplicar este proceso puede introducir un sesgo en las estimaciones de modelos espacio-temporales en estudios epidemiológicos. No se han encontrado estudios que midan este error en ciudades españolas. El objetivo es evaluar los errores en magnitud y direccionalidad de dos recursos gratuitos (Google y Yahoo) respecto a GPS en dos ciudades de España. Método: Se geocodificaron 30 direcciones aleatorias con los dos recursos citados y con GPS en Santa Pola (Alicante) y en Alicante. Se calculó la mediana y su IC95% del error en metros entre los recursos y GPS, para el total y por el status reportado. Se evaluó la direccionalidad del error calculando el cuadrante de localización y aplicando un test Chi-Cuadrado. Se evaluó el error del GPS midiendo 11 direcciones dos veces en un intervalo de 4 días. Resultados: La mediana del error total desde Google-GPS fue de 23,2 metros (16,0-32,2) para Santa Pola y 21,4 metros (14,9-31,1) en Alicante. Para Yahoo fue de 136,0 (19,2-318,5) para Santa Pola y 23,8 (13,6-29,2) para Alicante. Por status, se geocodificó entre un 73% y 90% como ‘exactas o interpoladas’ (menor error), tanto Google como Yahoo tuvieron una mediana del error de entre 19 y 22 metros en las dos ciudades. El error del GPS fue de 13,8 (6,7-17,8) metros. No se detectó direccionalidad. Conclusiones: El error de Google es asumible y estable en las dos ciudades, siendo un recurso fiable para geocodificar direcciones postales en España en estudios epidemiológicos.

Validity of verbal autopsy procedures for determining cause of death in Tanzania

Objectives: To validate verbal autopsy (VA) procedures for use in sample vital registration. Verbal autopsy is an important method for deriving cause-specific mortality estimates where disease burdens are greatest and routine cause-specific mortality data do not exist. Methods: Verbal autopsies and medical records (MR) were collected for 3123 deaths in the perinatal/neonatal period, post-neonatal < 5 age group, and for ages of 5 years and over in Tanzania. Causes of death were assigned by physician panels using the International Classification of Disease, revision 10. Validity was measured by: cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF); sensitivity; specificity and positive predictive value. Medical record diagnoses were scored for degree of uncertainty, and sensitivity and specificity adjusted. Criteria for evaluating VA performance in generating true proportional mortality were applied. Results: Verbal autopsy produced accurate CSMFs for nine causes in different age groups: birth asphyxia; intrauterine complications; pneumonia; HIV/AIDS; malaria (adults); tuberculosis; cerebrovascular diseases; injuries and direct maternal causes. Results for 20 other causes approached the threshold for good performance. Conclusions: Verbal autopsy reliably estimated CSMFs for diseases of public health importance in all age groups. Further validation is needed to assess reasons for lack of positive results for some conditions.

Molecular methods for the epidemiological analysis of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae are major health problems worldwide, both found in symptomless carriage but also causing even life-threatening infections. The aim of this thesis was to characterise MRSA and S. pneumoniae in detail by using several molecular typing methods for various epidemiological purposes: clonality analysis, epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigation, and virulence factor analysis. The characteristics of MRSA isolates from the strain collection of the Finnish National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) and pneumococcal isolates collected from military recruits and children with acute otitis media (AOM) were analysed using various typing techniques. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), spa typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and the detection of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes were performed for MRSA isolates. Pneumococcal isolates were analysed using antimicrobial susceptibility testing, serotyping, MLST, and by detecting pilus islet 1 (PI-1) and 2 (PI-2) genes. Several international community- and hospital-associated MRSA clones were recognised in Finland. The genetic diversity among MRSA FIN-4 isolates and among FIN-16 isolates was low. Overall, MRSA blood isolates from 1997 to 2006 were genetically diverse. spa typing was found to be a highly discriminatory, rapid and accurate typing method and it also qualifies as the primary typing method in countries with a long history of PFGE-based MRSA strain nomenclature. However, additional typing by another method, e.g. PFGE, is needed in certain situations to be able to provide adequate discrimination for epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigation. An outbreak of pneumonia was associated with one pneumococcal strain among military recruits, previously healthy young men living in a crowded setting. The pneumococcal carriage rate after the outbreak was found to be exceptionally high. PI-1 genes were detected at a rather low prevalence among pneumococcal isolates from children with AOM. However, the study demonstrated that PI-1 has existed among pneumococcal isolates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the increased antimicrobial resistance era. Moreover, PI-1 was found to associate with the serotype rather than the genotype. This study adds to our understanding of the molecular epidemiology of MRSA strains in Finland and the importance of an appropriate genotyping method to be able to perform high-level laboratory-based surveillance of MRSA. Epidemiological and molecular analyses of S. pneumoniae add to our knowledge of the characteristics of pneumococcal strains in Finland.

Cost-effectiveness of recruitment methods in a population-based epidemiological study: the Melbourne Visual Impairment Project

The cost-effectiveness of five recruitment methods was evaluated to determine the best method of encouraging eligible persons to participate in the Melbourne Visual Impairment Project (a population-based epidemiological study). The evaluation was divided into two phases. Phase 1 included one of two types of initial contact, by direct personal contact or by telephone. Phase 2 involved recruiting residents after an attempt had been made by either the telephone or the doorstep approach, and included a second attempt by a field interviewer, subsequent attempts by senior field staff, and finally, financial incentives. The cost-effectiveness of each method was determined by dividing the approach's cost by the effectiveness ratio. We identified 269 eligible households with 356 eligible residents. An 89 per cent response rate was achieved at the examination centre, comprising 61 per cent from Phase 1 and 28 per cent from Phase 2. Although both recruitment methods in Phase 1 were equally cost-effective, there was a significant difference in the effectiveness of each method in actually recruiting residents. The doorstep method was more costly per attender but was far more effective at 76 per cent recruitment than the telephone method at 47 per cent (P < 0.001). We have demonstrated a practical two-stage approach (the doorstep method in Phase 1 and follow-up strategies in Phase 2) to population-based recruitment involving the middle to elderly age group that should be relevant to many epidemiological studies.

Methods to convert continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat: meta-epidemiological study

Clinicians find standardized mean differences (SMDs) calculated from continuous outcomes difficult to interpret. Our objective was to determine the performance of methods in converting SMDs or means to odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat (NNTs) as more intuitive measures of treatment effect.

Demographic and clinical correlates of comorbid substance use disorders in psychosis : multivariate analyses from an epidemiological sample

Background: While there has been substantial research examining the correlates of comorbid substance abuse in psychotic disorders, it has been difficult to tease apart the relative importance of individual variables. Multivariate analyses are required, in which the relative contributions of risk factors to specific forms of substance misuse are examined, while taking into account the effects of other important correlates. Methods: This study used multivariate correlates of several forms of comorbid substance misuse in a large epidemiological sample of 852 Australians with DSMIII- R-diagnosed psychoses. Results: Multiple substance use was common and equally prevalent in nonaffective and affective psychoses. The most consistent correlate across the substance use disorders was male sex. Younger age groups were more likely to report the use of illegal drugs, while alcohol misuse was not associated with age. Side effects secondary to medication were associated with the misuse of cannabis and multiple substances, but not alcohol. Lower educational attainment was associated with cannabis misuse but not other forms of substance abuse. Conclusion: The profile of substance misuse in psychosis shows clinical and demographic gradients that can inform treatment and preventive research.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.